Updated May 2026

Compare Counties

Side-by-side comparison of the 10 riskiest and 10 safest U.S. counties for flooding, drawn from FEMA NFIP claim data and federal disaster declarations across 3.3K counties analyzed. The riskiest tier alone has absorbed about 29% of every flood-insurance claim FEMA has on file.

Why Compare the Tails?

U.S. flood risk is heavily skewed: a small number of coastal and river-adjacent counties absorb the majority of NFIP losses every year, while most of the country's counties see almost no insured flood damage. Showing the top and bottom of the distribution side by side makes the size of that gap concrete. For a parcel-level comparison, layer this with FEMA flood-zone designations and real-time hydrology from USGS Water Data.

10 Riskiest Counties

CountyStateGradeScore
HarrisTXD74
LeeFLC60
PinellasFLC55
JeffersonLAB40
CollierFLB39
St. John the BaptistLAB39
TerrebonneLAB39
LafourcheLAB38
St. CharlesLAB38
HillsboroughFLB37

10 Safest Counties

CountyStateGradeScore
DaneWIA3
AllenOHA3
HancockOHA3
WoodOHA3
MarionINA3
BlaineIDA4
GraysonTXA4
LucasOHA4
CassMOA4
ClevelandOKA4

Aggregate Tail Comparison

Summed across each tier of 10 counties, the size of the gap is striking — the riskiest decile carries roughly 124× the NFIP claim count and a similar multiple of total payouts, despite covering the same number of counties.

MetricTop 10 RiskiestTop 10 Safest
NFIP Claims (combined)29K234
Total Payouts$2,649,636,124$5,064,728
Disaster Declarations32529

How the Score Is Built

The composite flood risk score is a weighted average of four FEMA-derived factors: NFIP claims density (40%), disaster declaration frequency (25%), average claim severity (20%), and year-over-year trend (15%). Each factor is normalized independently before the weighted sum is taken. Letter grades A through F bucket the 0–100 score into five tiers. The full math, including how each factor is normalized and the dataset's limitations, is on the methodology page.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why compare the riskiest with the safest counties?

Comparing the two tails of the U.S. county distribution makes the spread of flood risk legible: the top-10 riskiest counties together account for 29% of every NFIP claim in the dataset, while the bottom-10 safest counties combined have absorbed only 234 claims across the entire FEMA record. That asymmetry is the most important fact about U.S. flood risk — it is sharply concentrated, not uniformly distributed.

How is the composite flood risk score calculated?

Each county's 0–100 score combines four FEMA-derived factors: NFIP claims density (40% of the weight), federally declared flood-disaster frequency (25%), average claim severity (20%), and year-over-year trend (15%). Letter grades A–F bucket the score for fast comparison. The full formula is documented on the methodology page.

Why is the gap between safest and riskiest so wide?

The riskiest tier is dominated by Gulf Coast and lower-Mississippi counties where storm surge, hurricane frequency, and barrier-island geography compound. The safest tier is mostly inland, high-elevation, or arid counties with no major river system and very limited NFIP take-up. The riskiest 10 counties shown below have absorbed roughly 124× the NFIP claim count of the safest 10.

Does a "safest" grade mean the county has never flooded?

No. An A grade means the county sits in the lowest 20 points of the composite distribution — very few NFIP claims relative to other counties, few federal flood-disaster declarations, and a flat or improving trend. Almost any county can flood under the right combination of rainfall, drainage, and urban runoff; the score reflects relative risk, not certainty.

How can I compare two specific counties side by side?

Use the search on the homepage to pull up either county's profile, then open both in side-by-side tabs. Every county profile shows the same set of stats — score, grade, NFIP claims, total payouts, disaster count, active policies, and the four factor scores — making head-to-head comparison straightforward. State-level comparison lives on the states page.

Comparison of riskiest and safest U.S. counties from FEMA NFIP claim and disaster-declaration data covering 3.3K counties.